Market experts note that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing a strange mix of strength and weakness, with transaction activity climbing toward record levels even as its price continues to fall. At the moment, the market is under severe bearish pressure, yet on-chain data suggests a major shift could be underway. If this bullish trend continues, the key question remains whether it could help support a Bitcoin price recovery and prevent further downtrends.
Bitcoin High Transaction Count To Hit Record Levels Soon
Bitcoin is seeing an unusual spike in on-chain activity even as its price continues to bleed. Sharing a CryptoQuant chart showcasing the sharp spike, crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that a historic change of hands is now playing out, with BTC transactions approaching an all-time high based on the 30-day Moving Average (MA).
Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s price decline has accelerated sharply in June, declining by roughly 19% just this week and adding further pressure to its already fragile structure. Despite the downtrend, the analyst noted that the cryptocurrency’s average monthly transaction count is now around 640,000. He noted that this level is close to what was last seen during the 2024 BTC price correction, when the crypto network recorded a whopping 666,000 transactions in September, marking one of its busiest periods.
Darkfost noted that the recent surge in BTC on-chain activity is unusual compared to previous cycles, as rising transaction counts typically coincide with bullish phases or market tops. However, the current trend indicates that BTC is firmly in bearish territory and has declined below previously presumed bottom levels.
As a result, the analyst described the current surge in transaction activity as a major “capitulation episode” and one of the most significant “change of hands” in Bitcoin’s history. Given the extent of BTC’s bearish trend, it remains unclear whether increased transaction activity alone can lift the cryptocurrency’s price out of its downtrend.
Short-Term Sellers See Heavy Losses As BTC Price Drop Continues
In a separate analysis, Darkfost noted that short-term Bitcoin holders are facing major losses after reacting strongly to the latest Bitcoin price drop. According to him, holders with positions under six months were hit the hardest when BTC’s price slipped below $60,000 during last week’s correction.
Over a 24-hour window, at the height of the decline, Darkfost stated that more than 60,200 BTC were sent to exchanges by short-term holders. Of that total, over 59,000 BTC were moved at a loss, marking the largest negative returns for this group since February.
The data showed that emotional selling played a major role in the move, with newer market participants locking in losses under pressure. This trend shows how quickly sentiment can shift during sharp corrections, especially among short-term traders.
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