Strategy's Q2 $8.2B loss confirms the STRC problem we found in our Q2 crypto industry report

STRC launched July 31, 2025 at a 9.00% yield, designed to stay pinned at $100 par. It never really held there. Every time it drifted below par, Strategy's answer was to raise the dividend, 9.00% at launch, up to 11.25% by January, 11.50% by March. The rate hikes worked for a while, until BTC itself started sliding hard. STRC hit an all-time low of $71.25 in June as bitcoin dropped toward $60K, and Strategy responded by draining its $2.25B cash reserve, repurchasing $1.5B in convertible notes instead of shoring up STRC support, and then sold a symbolic 32 BTC on June 1 just to cover dividends. That last part was the actual reversal moment, the "flywheel" (raise cash > buy BTC) breaking for the first time.

Today's Q2 earnings, released yesterday, showed some concerning results:

With regards to STRC they said "Increased the dividend rate to 12.00% to support STRC trading near its $100 per share stated amount, and will maintain the 12.00% rate until STRC demonstrates sustained, healthy trading near $100 per share."

But as of today, STRC remains around $89.50, well below its $100 par. Strategy is holding at 12.00% rather than raising further, understandably, given how much each hike adds to their annual dividend burden. But if STRC's price doesn't recover toward par, they may eventually be boxed into raising it again anyway, which only deepens the cashflow problem the chart already flagged.

The bigger picture: Strategy's whole model depends on BTC appreciating faster than the cost of the debt and dividends they're issuing to buy it. While they may previously have had the staying power to tide through bear markets, they may be in trouble if BTC does not reverse soon and STRC remains depressed and off-peg.

Full chart and Q2 report breakdown: https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/2026-q2-crypto-report