 | I’m planning to accumulate BITX (2x Bitcoin ETF) over the next 1-2 months and hold until first half year of 2029. I’m aware of the massive drawdowns and volatility decay associated with 2x leverage. However, my goal isn't to time the exact bottom or top, but to play the macro 4-year cycle. I’m buying at a relative low and aiming to exit at a relative high next cycle. My backtest of the previous cycle (see chart below) shows that a simple 2x Leveraged HODL from the accumulation floor vastly outperformed spot and every active strategy I tested. My logic: The positive compounding during the parabolic bull run seems to far outweigh the decay if you enter near the cycle floor. My questions: Does this "Cycle-based 2x HODL" make sense, or am I being too naive about the math? [link] [comments] |
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